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Change is in the air |
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| post date: Monday 21st of August 2006 |
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Some residents of Sofia will come to recall the month of August as being a month when things generally, well – they stopped. Cars were few and far between; businesses as well as Government simply shut down for the month and the streets and shops had a noticeable absence of people.
August was “the holiday month”.
How things change in such a short space of time: congestion is a bit thinner on the ground, admittedly, but the traffic can still be unbearable at peak times; businesses remain open as they have realised they cannot afford to simply close for the month, while the streets and shops, though quieter than normal, still see reasonable amounts of footfall.
All this just goes to show that things are most definitely changing not just in the capital Sofia, but also in the country as a whole. People are not going to their traditional haunts on the Black Sea in August as they invariably can’t find suitable accommodation when they want it, or at least accommodation at prices to which local holidaymakers have become accustomed. Hotels and apartments are being largely contracted by the big international tour operators for sale across their European network. Additionally, many of the newly built hotels and apartments need to charge international prices to repay loans taken to build them. These, in turn, put them out of the budgetary reach of many locals.
Roll all these facts together and throw them into the melting pot and one can see why holidays are now taken across all the summer months and not just August. One can see why there has been such a proliferation of outgoing charter flights and package holidays to the likes of Spain and Tunisia and one can see just why Bulgarian cars pour through the border crossings to Greece and Turkey during summer – it’s different and invariably it’s cheaper!
Just as things are changing locally, they are also likely to soon start changing nationally. In June, Bulgaria signed the European Open Skies Agreement, which – once ratified (probably between October-January) – will effectively throw open the doors of Bulgarian air space to any airline registered in an EU country that wants to fly here.
While artificial barriers can still be created in the form of denied access to airports and ground handling facilities, once the flood of new flights starts, it will continue as swiftly as has been seen across many other European countries. Already speculation is rife about who will and who will not be starting flights to Bulgaria, but an educated guess of potential entrants would immediately bring forth the names of Air Berlin, easyJet and Ryanair. The latter names being of the new breed of airline companies of which Wizz Air and SkyEurope have already trailblazed the path into Bulgaria.
Not long ago, such airlines were reluctant to break their business model and fly to destinations over two to two-and-a-half hours away, but to facilitate continued expansion and to keep shareholders happy, not enough of such destinations exist and new market possibilities had to be explored. That is why easyJet is launching flights to Marrakesh and Istanbul and Ryanair, likewise, to Marrakesh and to the Croatian town of Pula.
Enter the likes of Bulgaria, Greece and the Canary Islands. All are currently in vogue in terms of awareness and popularity and offer good short- to medium-term prospects in terms putting bottoms on seats – at least during the summer months for Bulgaria and Greece and all year round for the Canary Islands.
In expectation of these moves in the aviation world, airlines currently servicing Bulgaria are already gearing themselves up in an attempt to steal a march on future new entrants, but in so doing, may actually be making it easier for the newcomers when they do arrive.
Most airline prices are now much cheaper than they were five years ago; even when adding the questionable taxes they tack on, more airlines are flying more often to Bulgaria and the winner is the traveller who is able to take advantage of the competition among airlines and travel cheaper. He or she also has considerably more continued-destination options, after Malev Hungarian Airlines pioneered schedule flights to Europe from the Black Sea port of Varna, which now also sees the likes of Austrian Airlines, British Airways and Bulgaria Air operating regular flights.
Likewise, the country’s busiest airport Bourgas (yes, Bourgas) also now sees regular scheduled flights with Bulgaria Air and Malev. More flights, more airlines, more choice and cheaper flights is the bottom line. Expect the fares to tumble even more soon. If there was ever doubt about this, British Airways has just announced it will have fares of 11 euro one way and 35 euro return through winter between Varna and London.
Anyone who believes that the plane will be packed out with people paying 35 euro is sadly deluded. Such marketing tricks have traditionally been the domain of low-cost/no-frills carriers and it is interesting why British Airways should want to be seen to be lowering its status, unless that is the market in which it wants to be seen. Just how many seats will be available per flight is the real question and how much will be added on with spurious taxes such as fuel surcharges. Still, it makes good news material until the European Union stops them and all other airlines from displaying fares without taxes – a target set for September 2007.
British Airways, though, and Bulgaria Air almost certainly have one eye on the year ahead when they know serious competition will arrive. Building a market and building a market share (at whatever cost) may very well be the name of the game and if you hold market share its always harder for the new starts to steal it from you. Just think how much of a march British Airways and Bulgaria Air will steal on new entrants if they are already in a position to put bottoms on seats once the visa regime for travel to the UK is waived!
One side issue that may arise with the possibility of all the extra flights arriving here is where will they land. Sofia Airport has a new terminal that will be able to handle about 50 per cent more capacity than it does at present. Authorities also plan to keep using the old terminal and run the two side by side. It’s possible that the low-cost and charter airlines will pay a reduced landing fee to use the old facility, while traditional airlines will be encouraged to use the new terminal. It does sound bizarre, though, that rather than use one terminal efficiently you would use two partially!
The Black Sea airports already operate at breaking point and badly need the investment to rebuild themselves from Fraport/BM Star, which have been given the concession to run the two airports. This needs to be done for next year’s season, otherwise it’s hard to see how further Black Sea tourist expansion can be maintained.
So what about other airports? Well, quite simply there is no ready answer, but if you look at countries like Belgium and Italy, low-cost carriers are not adverse to using so-called secondary airports. Potential entrepreneurs could redevelop an airstrip to basic standards and entice airlines by effectively paying for them to land. The EU forbids governments from doing this but not private enterprises!
So how about Sofia-Plovdiv Airport (same as Frankfurt-Hahn or Milan Bergamo) or what about the former airports at Rousse and Gorna Oryachovitsa (which still handles cargo flights) as potential landing points? Or what if the Black Sea resorts built their own airports rather like Bansko is talking of doing? Now that would liven things up.
As many long-term residents will tell you, yes, things are most definitely changing. |
| source: The Sofia Echo, by Mark Thomas |
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